Home prices in metro Denver posted a year-over-year decline in September for the
15th consecutive month, and also slipped from the previous month, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Index, released Tuesday.
Denver area prices declined 0.8 percent in September from August, the first month-to-month decline in home prices in six months, the closely followed Case-Shiller report said.
Denver home prices rose 0.4 percent in August from the previous month, were flat in July but rose in April, May and June from the previous months, with increases ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 percent. Before that came 10 straight months of price declines from the previous month.
Over the year, Denver prices in September were down 1.5 percent from September 2010 levels, down a bit from August’s 1.6 percent year-over-year decline.
The prices are for resales of stand-alone single-family homes only, not new construction or condominiums.
Denver’s month-over-month decline in September was slightly greater than the 0.6 percent drop for a composite of the 20 cities tracked in the monthly Case-Shiller reports. Of those cities, only New York, Portland and Washington saw price rises.
For the full 12 months ending in September, the 20-city composite price dropped 3.6 percent. Only Washington saw a rise (1 percent) in that period; the biggest declines were in Atlanta (down 9.8 percent), Minneapolis (down 7.4 percent) and Las Vegas (down 7.3 percent).
David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices, said in the report that “the plunging collapse of prices seen in 2007-2009 seems to be behind us.”
But he added: “Any chance for a sustained recovery [in prices] will probably need a stronger economy.”
The report assigns index values to the 20 cities based on current average home prices in relation to what they were in January 2000.
Denver’s index for September was 125.44, meaning that prices were 25.44 percent higher than they were in January 2000. The 20-city average index was 141.97 for September.
Each month from October 2009 through June 2010, the Case-Shiller report showed year-over-year increases in Denver-area home prices. That ended in July 2010.
Before October 2009, Denver saw 36 straight months of year-over-year price declines, peaking at a 5.7 percent drop in February 2009 from the year before.
Case-Shiller is one of several popular measures of home prices, using different methodologies, covering different housing types and giving different results.
A Nov. 8 report from Denver-based Integrated Asset Services said that the median single-family house price in metro Denver declined 1.6 percent in the third quarter from the same period of 2010, although it was up 1.7 percent from the second quarter of this year.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Monday, November 21, 2011
What is happening with foreclosures at this time?
It is almost 2012. This year has flown by. I am looking forward to Thanksgiving this Thursday and have a lot to be thankful for. I hope you do too.
Foreclosure auction sales in Colorado's 12 urban counties fell to a 42-month low in October, and new foreclosure filings also were down sharply, the state Division of Housing reported Wednesday.
The report says foreclosure filings in the 12 counties dropped 23.2 percent in October, to 2,350, from the same month of 2010, and also were down 3.3 percent from the previous month.
Foreclosure sales, meanwhile, were down 28.3 percent in October, to 938, from October 2010, and decreased 16.5 percent from September 2011.
"October's auction sales fell off more than expected, and it's pretty clear at this point that there's a well-established downward trend now in place," Division of Housing spokesman Ryan McMaken said. "We're cautiously optimistic that the trend will continue, but we're waiting to see how things look after homeowners begin to pay off holiday bills early next year."
In the city of Denver alone, foreclosure sales fell 41.6 percent, to 115, between October 2010 and October 2011. The greatest drop in auction sales in the 12 counties was in Adams County, down 60.8 percent, to 69.
Year to date through October, 2011 foreclosure filings were down 29.3 percent in the urban counties from the same period last year, and auction sales were down 22.6 percent, the report said.
The Metropolitan Foreclosure Report covers Denver County as well as Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer, Mesa, Pueblo and Weld counties. Smaller counties are not included in the monthly totals.
Foreclosure filings are the first stage in the foreclosure process, which can either lead to a foreclosure sale of a property several months later or a homeowner avoiding a sale by settling with a lender.
Foreclosure sales figures include properties that revert to the lender as well as sales to a third party.
The state foreclosure data are mostly for homes, but include a small number of commercial properties and vacant land.
The Division of Housing posts foreclosure tallies for 12 urban counties once a month and for all Colorado counties quarterly.
In a separate Division of Housing report released Nov. 8, covering the entire state, officials said new foreclosure filings in Colorado fell 24.6 percent in the third quarter from the same period of 2010. Foreclosure auction sales also fell sharply between the two periods, by 29.8 percent, the earlier state report said.
Foreclosure auction sales in Colorado's 12 urban counties fell to a 42-month low in October, and new foreclosure filings also were down sharply, the state Division of Housing reported Wednesday.
The report says foreclosure filings in the 12 counties dropped 23.2 percent in October, to 2,350, from the same month of 2010, and also were down 3.3 percent from the previous month.
Foreclosure sales, meanwhile, were down 28.3 percent in October, to 938, from October 2010, and decreased 16.5 percent from September 2011.
"October's auction sales fell off more than expected, and it's pretty clear at this point that there's a well-established downward trend now in place," Division of Housing spokesman Ryan McMaken said. "We're cautiously optimistic that the trend will continue, but we're waiting to see how things look after homeowners begin to pay off holiday bills early next year."
In the city of Denver alone, foreclosure sales fell 41.6 percent, to 115, between October 2010 and October 2011. The greatest drop in auction sales in the 12 counties was in Adams County, down 60.8 percent, to 69.
Year to date through October, 2011 foreclosure filings were down 29.3 percent in the urban counties from the same period last year, and auction sales were down 22.6 percent, the report said.
The Metropolitan Foreclosure Report covers Denver County as well as Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer, Mesa, Pueblo and Weld counties. Smaller counties are not included in the monthly totals.
Foreclosure filings are the first stage in the foreclosure process, which can either lead to a foreclosure sale of a property several months later or a homeowner avoiding a sale by settling with a lender.
Foreclosure sales figures include properties that revert to the lender as well as sales to a third party.
The state foreclosure data are mostly for homes, but include a small number of commercial properties and vacant land.
The Division of Housing posts foreclosure tallies for 12 urban counties once a month and for all Colorado counties quarterly.
In a separate Division of Housing report released Nov. 8, covering the entire state, officials said new foreclosure filings in Colorado fell 24.6 percent in the third quarter from the same period of 2010. Foreclosure auction sales also fell sharply between the two periods, by 29.8 percent, the earlier state report said.
Monday, November 7, 2011
What is happening with rates at this time?
Rates are still at historic lows. A 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Averages 4.00 Percent
Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average mortgage rates declining sharply as investors rushed to U.S. Treasury bonds amid concerns over the European debt market. The 30-year fixed at 4.00 percent marks the second lowest reading since it hit a record 3.94 percent in the October 6, 2011 PMMS, the lowest in history.
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.00 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending November 3, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.10 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.24 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.31 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.38 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.63 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.96 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.08 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.39 percent.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.88 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.90 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.26 percent.
Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, "Market concerns over the European debt market drew investors to U.S. Treasury securities, lowering bond yields and mortgage rates. Meanwhile, on the home front, the U.S. economy continued its gradual recovery. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the economy grew 2.5 percent in the third quarter, the strongest pace in a year, led by a surge in consumer expenditures. In addition, consumer spending rose 0.6 percent in September, nearly threefold that of August. Finally, consumer sentiment, as measured by the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index, rose for the second month in a row in October to its highest reading since July."
Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average mortgage rates declining sharply as investors rushed to U.S. Treasury bonds amid concerns over the European debt market. The 30-year fixed at 4.00 percent marks the second lowest reading since it hit a record 3.94 percent in the October 6, 2011 PMMS, the lowest in history.
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.00 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending November 3, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.10 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.24 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.31 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.38 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.63 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.96 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.08 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.39 percent.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.88 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.90 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.26 percent.
Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, "Market concerns over the European debt market drew investors to U.S. Treasury securities, lowering bond yields and mortgage rates. Meanwhile, on the home front, the U.S. economy continued its gradual recovery. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the economy grew 2.5 percent in the third quarter, the strongest pace in a year, led by a surge in consumer expenditures. In addition, consumer spending rose 0.6 percent in September, nearly threefold that of August. Finally, consumer sentiment, as measured by the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index, rose for the second month in a row in October to its highest reading since July."
Whater are 5 Great Things about Homeownership?
If you've been on the fence about homeownership, it could be the time to take a leap. With historically low rates and living in what I believe is one of the greatest cities in the country, below are five reasons they may help you get off the fence.
1. Equity. When you pay rent, you never see that money again. It is lining the landlord's pocket. Yes, buying a home may come with some hefty initial costs (downpayment, closing costs, inspections), but you will make that money back over time in equity built in the home. Historically, homes appreciate by about 4 to 6 percent a year. Some areas are still experiencing normal appreciation rates. For the areas that have seen harder times since the recession, experts feel that the housing market will recover. Homeownership is about building long-term wealth. A home bought for $10,000 in 1960 is most likely worth 10 times that in today's market.
2. Relationships: Renters tend to see their neighbors come and go quickly. Some people sign year leases while others are in the community for much shorter terms. Apartment complexes also tend to have less common shared space for people to meet, greet, and socialize. Homeowners, however, have yards, walking trails, or community pools and clubhouses where they can get to know each other. Neighbors stay put much longer (at least three to five years if they hope to recoup their closing costs). This means more time to develop relationships. Research has shown that people with healthy relationships have more happiness and less stress.
3. Predictability: Well, as long as you have a fixed-rate term on your mortgage it's predictable. Most people buying homes today know that a fixed-rate is the way to go. This means your payment amount is fixed for the life of the term. If your mortgage payment is $500 today, then it will still be $500 a month in 10 years. This allows for people to budget and make solid financial plans. The sub-prime crisis meant many homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages saw their monthly payments rise and then rise some more. Homeownership, though, generally comes with a predictable table of expenditures. Even the big purchases are predictable. You know most roofs last just 15 years (or so). You know that each year you'll need to pay for the gutters to be cleaned, and so on.
4. Ownership: Okay, this is a given. Homeownership means you "own" your home. That comes with some incredible perks, though! You can renovate, update, paint, and decorate to your heart's desire. You can plant trees, install a pool, expand the patio, or do holiday decorating that would rival the Kranks (if the HOA allows!). The bottom line is this is your home and you can personalize it to your taste. Most renters are stuck with the same beige walls and beige carpet that has been standard apartment decor for 20 years. Now is your chance to let your home speak!
5. Great Deals: It's a great time to buy. Interest rates are at historic lows. We're talking 4.0 percent instead of 6.0 or higher. This means big savings for today's buyers. Home prices have also taken a dip since the recession, which means homes are more affordable than ever. If you have steady income and cash for a downpayment, then be sure to talk to your local real estate agent about what homes in your area could be a fit for you.
1. Equity. When you pay rent, you never see that money again. It is lining the landlord's pocket. Yes, buying a home may come with some hefty initial costs (downpayment, closing costs, inspections), but you will make that money back over time in equity built in the home. Historically, homes appreciate by about 4 to 6 percent a year. Some areas are still experiencing normal appreciation rates. For the areas that have seen harder times since the recession, experts feel that the housing market will recover. Homeownership is about building long-term wealth. A home bought for $10,000 in 1960 is most likely worth 10 times that in today's market.
2. Relationships: Renters tend to see their neighbors come and go quickly. Some people sign year leases while others are in the community for much shorter terms. Apartment complexes also tend to have less common shared space for people to meet, greet, and socialize. Homeowners, however, have yards, walking trails, or community pools and clubhouses where they can get to know each other. Neighbors stay put much longer (at least three to five years if they hope to recoup their closing costs). This means more time to develop relationships. Research has shown that people with healthy relationships have more happiness and less stress.
3. Predictability: Well, as long as you have a fixed-rate term on your mortgage it's predictable. Most people buying homes today know that a fixed-rate is the way to go. This means your payment amount is fixed for the life of the term. If your mortgage payment is $500 today, then it will still be $500 a month in 10 years. This allows for people to budget and make solid financial plans. The sub-prime crisis meant many homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages saw their monthly payments rise and then rise some more. Homeownership, though, generally comes with a predictable table of expenditures. Even the big purchases are predictable. You know most roofs last just 15 years (or so). You know that each year you'll need to pay for the gutters to be cleaned, and so on.
4. Ownership: Okay, this is a given. Homeownership means you "own" your home. That comes with some incredible perks, though! You can renovate, update, paint, and decorate to your heart's desire. You can plant trees, install a pool, expand the patio, or do holiday decorating that would rival the Kranks (if the HOA allows!). The bottom line is this is your home and you can personalize it to your taste. Most renters are stuck with the same beige walls and beige carpet that has been standard apartment decor for 20 years. Now is your chance to let your home speak!
5. Great Deals: It's a great time to buy. Interest rates are at historic lows. We're talking 4.0 percent instead of 6.0 or higher. This means big savings for today's buyers. Home prices have also taken a dip since the recession, which means homes are more affordable than ever. If you have steady income and cash for a downpayment, then be sure to talk to your local real estate agent about what homes in your area could be a fit for you.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
How is the Denver housing market at this time?
It seems many places I go, the conversation of real estate always comes up even before someone asks what I do for my profession. This past Sunday, I stopped by a ladies' tea for a women's community group I am in and one of the other members and I started talking about interest rates for mortgages. They are at historic lows at this time (3.75% for a 30 year fixed rate), and the woman I was speaking of said her and her husband's first interest rate on their home was 18%. Wow!
Lately I have been running into multiple offer situations, mostly I beleive due to the lower interest rates, people moving to Colorado all the time, and the lack of inventory that is in great condition.
Below is an excerpt from the Denver Post regarding what others are seeing in the market:
A lack of inventory — or, more precisely, "compelling" inventory, as some agents call it — has complicated homebuying for people and added yet another strain on a long-stressed housing market.
Homes in the $300,000-to- $600,000 range in Denver's older neighborhoods and places such as Highlands Ranch can move surprisingly fast.
When people have it overpriced or don't have it ready to go, it doesn't go.
The number of homes listed for sale in Denver is down by about half since the frenzy surrounding the April 2010 deadline for a homebuyer tax credit.
The inventory of homes available for sale in metro Denver in August was down 23 percent from August 2010, and down 5 percent from July, according to statistics compiled by independent real-estate analyst Gary Bauer.
There were 18,164 homes and condos listed for sale in metro Denver, compared with 23,615 in August 2010.
"This low inventory is surprising," said Bauer, who had expected inventory levels to hold around 24,000. "It will make the housing market that much more difficult to work in."
But so far, that doesn't appear to be happening, and Bauer doesn't expect it to, given the other pressures on the market. The median home price in metro Denver fell to $235,000 in August from $239,000 a year earlier.
The upper end of the market continues to struggle with too many homes and lengthy times on the market. But even the low end, once glutted with foreclosures and short sales, is starting to see inventory dry up.
Wes Schlapman, an associate agent with Home4You, said he has struggled to find foreclosures and bank-owned homes that will work for fix-and-flips.
He can sell the homes after he fixes them, but finding them has become the hard part.
Foreclosure filings are down sharply in Denver, and the homes that go to auction are only a fraction of that number.
That is just one of several reasons why the inventory of unsold homes is shrinking, Bauer said.
Many sellers are on strike, in that they don't have to sell and won't until prices improve. Other sellers might prefer to sell but owe more than their homes are worth and can't afford to bring money to the closing table.
Tight credit is another factor. Buyers have to put more money down to obtain a mortgage, and lenders are less likely to cover the costs of home improvements than in the past, putting turnkey properties in demand.
Lately I have been running into multiple offer situations, mostly I beleive due to the lower interest rates, people moving to Colorado all the time, and the lack of inventory that is in great condition.
Below is an excerpt from the Denver Post regarding what others are seeing in the market:
A lack of inventory — or, more precisely, "compelling" inventory, as some agents call it — has complicated homebuying for people and added yet another strain on a long-stressed housing market.
Homes in the $300,000-to- $600,000 range in Denver's older neighborhoods and places such as Highlands Ranch can move surprisingly fast.
When people have it overpriced or don't have it ready to go, it doesn't go.
The number of homes listed for sale in Denver is down by about half since the frenzy surrounding the April 2010 deadline for a homebuyer tax credit.
The inventory of homes available for sale in metro Denver in August was down 23 percent from August 2010, and down 5 percent from July, according to statistics compiled by independent real-estate analyst Gary Bauer.
There were 18,164 homes and condos listed for sale in metro Denver, compared with 23,615 in August 2010.
"This low inventory is surprising," said Bauer, who had expected inventory levels to hold around 24,000. "It will make the housing market that much more difficult to work in."
But so far, that doesn't appear to be happening, and Bauer doesn't expect it to, given the other pressures on the market. The median home price in metro Denver fell to $235,000 in August from $239,000 a year earlier.
The upper end of the market continues to struggle with too many homes and lengthy times on the market. But even the low end, once glutted with foreclosures and short sales, is starting to see inventory dry up.
Wes Schlapman, an associate agent with Home4You, said he has struggled to find foreclosures and bank-owned homes that will work for fix-and-flips.
He can sell the homes after he fixes them, but finding them has become the hard part.
Foreclosure filings are down sharply in Denver, and the homes that go to auction are only a fraction of that number.
That is just one of several reasons why the inventory of unsold homes is shrinking, Bauer said.
Many sellers are on strike, in that they don't have to sell and won't until prices improve. Other sellers might prefer to sell but owe more than their homes are worth and can't afford to bring money to the closing table.
Tight credit is another factor. Buyers have to put more money down to obtain a mortgage, and lenders are less likely to cover the costs of home improvements than in the past, putting turnkey properties in demand.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Rates? Lowest in 50 Years
Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing mortgage rates, fixed and adjustable, reaching all-time record lows providing further incentive for those homeowners looking to refinance. The 30-year fixed averaged 4.15 percent, breaking the previous record low of 4.17 percent set November 11, 2010.
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.15 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending August 18, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.32 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.42 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.36 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.50 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.90 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.08 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.13 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.56 percent.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.86 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.89 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.53 percent.
Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, reports, "The Federal Reserve's policy statement last week and ongoing market concerns over the European debt market carried momentum into this week allowing all mortgage products in our survey to reach all-time record lows. For instance, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now the lowest in over 50 years. In comparison, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated the average effective mortgage rate was about 5.3 percent on single-family loans outstanding during the second quarter of 2011."
"Not surprising, many homeowners took advantage of this low mortgage rate environment and have already refinanced their loans. The refinance share of applications averaged nearly 70 percent of all mortgage activity in the first half of this year, according to our survey. In addition, an increasing share of refinancing borrowers chose to shorten their loan terms during the second quarter, according to Freddie Mac's Quarterly Product Transition Report."
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.15 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending August 18, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.32 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.42 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.36 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.50 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.90 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.08 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.13 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.56 percent.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.86 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.89 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.53 percent.
Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac, reports, "The Federal Reserve's policy statement last week and ongoing market concerns over the European debt market carried momentum into this week allowing all mortgage products in our survey to reach all-time record lows. For instance, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now the lowest in over 50 years. In comparison, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated the average effective mortgage rate was about 5.3 percent on single-family loans outstanding during the second quarter of 2011."
"Not surprising, many homeowners took advantage of this low mortgage rate environment and have already refinanced their loans. The refinance share of applications averaged nearly 70 percent of all mortgage activity in the first half of this year, according to our survey. In addition, an increasing share of refinancing borrowers chose to shorten their loan terms during the second quarter, according to Freddie Mac's Quarterly Product Transition Report."
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
What are some good, inexpensive updates before listing your home?
Well, the nights are starting to get shorter and fall seems to be on it's way. I don't know about you, but I am not quite ready. We are lucky to have all four seasons here in Colorado, but something about the summer months makes things feel more carefree. Maybe it is thinking about having summer breaks while growing up.
There is no perfect formula for selling your home efficiently, but by following these five tips prior to listing you can increase your chances to close quickly at a higher price.
1.) Update your old garage door(s). Garage doors seem like a non-issue, but many times they make up a significant percentage of the front of a home. Because of this, they are one of the first things that buyers notice when they pull in the drive way. Replacing, or even just painting, these central fixtures will do wonders when it comes to instantly impressing perspective buyers and standing apart from your competition. The market has changed drastically since many of us purchased our homes here in town. I frequently hear buyers say that they have taken a house off their list because of the lack of curb appeal. This issue is especially important to people on busier streets, corner lots, or near a neighborhood eyesore.
2.) Replace old windows. Outdated windows age a home significantly, and you can often upgrade standard windows to vinyl for a reasonable $300 per window. The average home has 8 windows, so this upgrade doesn’t cost nearly as much as you might think and it will make a huge difference to the value perceived by prospective buyers. Key point to remember is that when buyers view a home they love, if they see it has older windows, they consider it a time consuming and costly headache. First time buyers have never replaced windows and often dramatically overestimate the cost to cure this issue. By replacing pre-listing you an actually save money. A well priced, move-in condition home will sell for far more than one with windows in need of repair.
3.) Assess your floors . If you have hardwood flooring, it’s worth the investment to have them refinished considering buyers put an extremely high value on them; you’ll get the most bang for your buck if they are refurbished. Carpets should be shampooed and replaced if they are stained or look worn. You don’t need to spend large amounts of money on the highest grade or most modern name but something inexpensive and neutral will certainly bring you a return on the investment. Even the smell of new carpet will make buyers set your home apart from the comparables.
4.) Paint the trim. If you can’t afford the daunting task of painting your entire house, painting just the trim will still make a big difference when it comes to curb appeal. Painting the whole house can be expensive, time consuming, and delayed by weather conditions; painting just the trim will give your home a fresher look. Interior trim is equally as important.
5.) Update fixtures. Keep an eye out for sales at home improvement stores and replace outdated lighting, plumbing and hardware fixtures. Simple replacing lighting fixtures and knobs in the bathroom or kitchen can update the entire look of the room. You can find many modern brand name fixtures online on contractor supply websites by just searching for terms like sale faucets, sale plumbing fixtures etc.
There is no perfect formula for selling your home efficiently, but by following these five tips prior to listing you can increase your chances to close quickly at a higher price.
1.) Update your old garage door(s). Garage doors seem like a non-issue, but many times they make up a significant percentage of the front of a home. Because of this, they are one of the first things that buyers notice when they pull in the drive way. Replacing, or even just painting, these central fixtures will do wonders when it comes to instantly impressing perspective buyers and standing apart from your competition. The market has changed drastically since many of us purchased our homes here in town. I frequently hear buyers say that they have taken a house off their list because of the lack of curb appeal. This issue is especially important to people on busier streets, corner lots, or near a neighborhood eyesore.
2.) Replace old windows. Outdated windows age a home significantly, and you can often upgrade standard windows to vinyl for a reasonable $300 per window. The average home has 8 windows, so this upgrade doesn’t cost nearly as much as you might think and it will make a huge difference to the value perceived by prospective buyers. Key point to remember is that when buyers view a home they love, if they see it has older windows, they consider it a time consuming and costly headache. First time buyers have never replaced windows and often dramatically overestimate the cost to cure this issue. By replacing pre-listing you an actually save money. A well priced, move-in condition home will sell for far more than one with windows in need of repair.
3.) Assess your floors . If you have hardwood flooring, it’s worth the investment to have them refinished considering buyers put an extremely high value on them; you’ll get the most bang for your buck if they are refurbished. Carpets should be shampooed and replaced if they are stained or look worn. You don’t need to spend large amounts of money on the highest grade or most modern name but something inexpensive and neutral will certainly bring you a return on the investment. Even the smell of new carpet will make buyers set your home apart from the comparables.
4.) Paint the trim. If you can’t afford the daunting task of painting your entire house, painting just the trim will still make a big difference when it comes to curb appeal. Painting the whole house can be expensive, time consuming, and delayed by weather conditions; painting just the trim will give your home a fresher look. Interior trim is equally as important.
5.) Update fixtures. Keep an eye out for sales at home improvement stores and replace outdated lighting, plumbing and hardware fixtures. Simple replacing lighting fixtures and knobs in the bathroom or kitchen can update the entire look of the room. You can find many modern brand name fixtures online on contractor supply websites by just searching for terms like sale faucets, sale plumbing fixtures etc.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
What is going on with rates at this time?

Things have been quite active this past week with the debt ceiling crisis coming to an end last Tuesday when an agreement was finally reached at the last minute. By the end of the week, Standard and Poor's went ahead and downgraded the U.S. credit rating. Although the stock market is dropping, low mortgage rates have survived both the debt crisis and U.S. downgrade.
Freerateupdate.com's daily survey of wholesale and direct lenders show that low mortgage rates have made it through these episodes and remain stable with only the jumbo 30 year fixed mortgage rate fluctuating by .125%. Remaining the same, 30 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.125%, 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 3.500% and 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 2.750%. With good credit, borrowers can obtain these low mortgage rates with 0.7 to 1% origination fee. Currently, conforming mortgage rates are at the lowest levels of the year and remain a good opportunity for borrowers who receive lender approval.
By combining low FHA mortgage rates, that have remained steady, and low down payment requirements, borrowers can still attain affordable home ownership. Current FHA 30 year mortgage rates are at 4.000%, FHA 15 year mortgage rates are at 3.500% and FHA 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.250%. FHA will accept gifts from family, employers and unions provided the necessary documentation is approved. Grants and loans issued by state, county and local housing initiatives are also combined with FHA mortgages in order to make the final transaction even more affordable. Although FHA closing costs (APR) tend to be higher because of various FHA fees and the upfront mortgage insurance premium, the benefits of FHA mortgages far outweigh these expenses.
Jumbo 30 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.750%, which is up .125% from Wednesday. Remaining the same, jumbo 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.375% and jumbo 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.250%. Jumbo mortgage loans are not government insured and, therefore, are considered risky transactions. Because of this, borrowers must have excellent credit in order to obtain these low jumbo mortgage rates with 0.7 to 1% origination point. High end borrowers have benefited from affordable jumbo mortgage rates that have followed in the path of other mortgage rates by remaining competitive and low.
MBS prices (mortgage backed securities) were up most of the week, went down on Friday, and again are up this week. Mortgage rates change in the opposite direction of MBS prices. On the bright side, private sector jobs increased and mortgage applications were up as reported by the Mortgage Banker's Association. On the down side, factory orders decreased. Overall, investors are reacting to Friday's news that Standard and Poor's proceeded to downgrade the U.S. credit rating which turned out to be a boost for the bond market while, at the same time, tanking stocks. If investors continue to seek the safety of bonds, mortgage rates should remain low.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
How is the Colorado housing market at this time?
Happy Summer! I hope you are enjoying all of the outdoor activities our state has to offer. There has been no shortage of negative headlines regarding the struggling housing markets in Denver and Colorado. However, based on home price data, one could make the case that Colorado is in a better position that many areas.
Consider these factors:
Household formation and population growth continues at strong rates.
Investors continue to put capital into areas where they’re buying up foreclosed homes.
There are signs of stability in the market, although it’s likely that home prices will continue a slow decline in the near term.
Still, questions linger: Why did Colorado’s foreclosure woes begin early, and will we recover earlier?
Economy soft pre-bubble
First, a look at the economic foundation that led to a shaky housing market, but not the collapse that cratered so many other markets. Part of the reason that the bubble in home prices in Colorado was so small can be attributed to the fact that Colorado’s economy wasn’t all that strong during the inter-recessionary period of 2003-2008. Growth was moderate during this period. Some might even say it was lackluster.
Economic growth in Colorado underperformed the nation from 2002 to 2006 and only started to do better than the nation in 2007 and 2008. But by then, home prices had already peaked and were on their way down.
The labor markets during this period were not particularly excellent, either. During the 1990s, the unemployment rate in Colorado was below the national rate for almost the entire decade, often ranging from two to five percent.
But from 2002 to 2006, the Colorado unemployment rate essentially mirrored the national rate, ranging from four to six percent, and it wasn’t until 2007 that the Colorado unemployment rate even started to get close to the sort of low rates that had been common from 1995 to 2001. But by then, a new recession was on the horizon and home prices had stagnated. In 2008, the good times ended, with economic growth turning negative and joblessness accelerating.
Thus, it may be that one of the reasons we saw foreclosures rising in Colorado sooner that most of the nation was simply the fact that the Colorado economy and labor markets, during what was a bubble time for much of the nation, was relatively fragile in Colorado.
It’s not clear that Colorado suffered higher rates predatory lending or “creative financing” than other states. Nor was the pattern of housing development much different in Colorado when compared to, say, the suburbs of California or Arizona or Florida. So we’re left looking to the larger economic context to provide answers for why foreclosures accelerated here first.
Higher they rise, the bigger the fall
It’s possible that in Colorado, without the big run-ups in home prices during the middle part of the decade, it didn’t take as long for problems with negative equity to show up. With so few years of robust economic growth and job growth between the decade’s two recessions, problems may have manifested themselves sooner as home prices began to fall, wage growth flattened and joblessness rose.
Ultimately, the lack of a bubble saved Colorado from the enormous home price declines, strategic defaults and other issues associated with the popping of a very large bubble, but it may also have paved the way for foreclosures to surface here at a time when many other markets were experiencing unprecedented increases in housing demand and prices.
Will Colorado’s foreclosure woes end early after starting early? That’s not apparent yet. Although Colorado continues to show signs of stability in prices and in demand, foreclosures themselves do remain at extremely high levels by historical standards. Foreclosure filings have consistently declined each month for the past six months, but even at the current rate of decline foreclosure totals are likely to end the year at double what they were prior to 2005. This points to a need for a few more years of declines before foreclosure return to what might be considered a “normal level.”
The rate of decline is likely to be slow as well. With lenders and servicers processing foreclosures so slowly, it will take longer to move through the existing inventory we have. This problem isn’t unique to Colorado, of course, but it will have an effect here.
Colorado not immune to outside forces
Colorado real estate also is at the mercy of national and international credit markets, so if a globally or nationally weak economy continues to discourage real estate lending, Colorado will also feel the pinch.
On the other hand, Colorado continues to benefit from a desire among many Americans to relocate to Colorado. Population growth is relatively strong as is household formation. Mixing an increasing population with a small amount of new construction will undoubtedly help those who need to sell their houses to avoid foreclosure.
Job growth, however, will continue to be one of the biggest factors in driving down the foreclosure rate. Housing counselors report that job loss and income loss are the top reasons households go into foreclosure right now, and until we see the significant job gains that have eluded the state in recent years, foreclosures are likely to recede at a slow pace.
Consider these factors:
Household formation and population growth continues at strong rates.
Investors continue to put capital into areas where they’re buying up foreclosed homes.
There are signs of stability in the market, although it’s likely that home prices will continue a slow decline in the near term.
Still, questions linger: Why did Colorado’s foreclosure woes begin early, and will we recover earlier?
Economy soft pre-bubble
First, a look at the economic foundation that led to a shaky housing market, but not the collapse that cratered so many other markets. Part of the reason that the bubble in home prices in Colorado was so small can be attributed to the fact that Colorado’s economy wasn’t all that strong during the inter-recessionary period of 2003-2008. Growth was moderate during this period. Some might even say it was lackluster.
Economic growth in Colorado underperformed the nation from 2002 to 2006 and only started to do better than the nation in 2007 and 2008. But by then, home prices had already peaked and were on their way down.
The labor markets during this period were not particularly excellent, either. During the 1990s, the unemployment rate in Colorado was below the national rate for almost the entire decade, often ranging from two to five percent.
But from 2002 to 2006, the Colorado unemployment rate essentially mirrored the national rate, ranging from four to six percent, and it wasn’t until 2007 that the Colorado unemployment rate even started to get close to the sort of low rates that had been common from 1995 to 2001. But by then, a new recession was on the horizon and home prices had stagnated. In 2008, the good times ended, with economic growth turning negative and joblessness accelerating.
Thus, it may be that one of the reasons we saw foreclosures rising in Colorado sooner that most of the nation was simply the fact that the Colorado economy and labor markets, during what was a bubble time for much of the nation, was relatively fragile in Colorado.
It’s not clear that Colorado suffered higher rates predatory lending or “creative financing” than other states. Nor was the pattern of housing development much different in Colorado when compared to, say, the suburbs of California or Arizona or Florida. So we’re left looking to the larger economic context to provide answers for why foreclosures accelerated here first.
Higher they rise, the bigger the fall
It’s possible that in Colorado, without the big run-ups in home prices during the middle part of the decade, it didn’t take as long for problems with negative equity to show up. With so few years of robust economic growth and job growth between the decade’s two recessions, problems may have manifested themselves sooner as home prices began to fall, wage growth flattened and joblessness rose.
Ultimately, the lack of a bubble saved Colorado from the enormous home price declines, strategic defaults and other issues associated with the popping of a very large bubble, but it may also have paved the way for foreclosures to surface here at a time when many other markets were experiencing unprecedented increases in housing demand and prices.
Will Colorado’s foreclosure woes end early after starting early? That’s not apparent yet. Although Colorado continues to show signs of stability in prices and in demand, foreclosures themselves do remain at extremely high levels by historical standards. Foreclosure filings have consistently declined each month for the past six months, but even at the current rate of decline foreclosure totals are likely to end the year at double what they were prior to 2005. This points to a need for a few more years of declines before foreclosure return to what might be considered a “normal level.”
The rate of decline is likely to be slow as well. With lenders and servicers processing foreclosures so slowly, it will take longer to move through the existing inventory we have. This problem isn’t unique to Colorado, of course, but it will have an effect here.
Colorado not immune to outside forces
Colorado real estate also is at the mercy of national and international credit markets, so if a globally or nationally weak economy continues to discourage real estate lending, Colorado will also feel the pinch.
On the other hand, Colorado continues to benefit from a desire among many Americans to relocate to Colorado. Population growth is relatively strong as is household formation. Mixing an increasing population with a small amount of new construction will undoubtedly help those who need to sell their houses to avoid foreclosure.
Job growth, however, will continue to be one of the biggest factors in driving down the foreclosure rate. Housing counselors report that job loss and income loss are the top reasons households go into foreclosure right now, and until we see the significant job gains that have eluded the state in recent years, foreclosures are likely to recede at a slow pace.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
What is happening with rates at this time?
Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), which shows mortgage rates mixed but holding steady for the second week with the 30-year fixed matching last week's 4.50 percent average and the 15-year fixed edging up to 3.69 percent.
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.50 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending June 23, 2011, unchanged from last week when it averaged 4.50 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.69 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.69 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.67 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.13 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.25 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.27 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.84 percent.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.99 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.97 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.77 percent.
Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, reports, "Mortgage rates were virtually unchanged this week amid further indications of a soft housing market. Although new construction on single-family homes ticked up in May from April, it was still below the overall pace set in 2010. Moreover, existing home sales fell 3.8 percent in May to the fewest since November 2010." "The Federal Reserve also reiterated that the housing sector continues to be depressed in its June 22nd policy committee statement. The S&P/Case-Shiller® National Home Price Index fell 2.1 percent between the fourth quarter of 2010 and first quarter 2011. Based on a recent survey by MarcoMarkets of 108 professional forecasters taken in early June, the index is predicted to decline another 1.5 percent by the fourth quarter of this year."
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.50 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending June 23, 2011, unchanged from last week when it averaged 4.50 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.69 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.69 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.67 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.13 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.25 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.27 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.84 percent.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.99 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.97 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.77 percent.
Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, reports, "Mortgage rates were virtually unchanged this week amid further indications of a soft housing market. Although new construction on single-family homes ticked up in May from April, it was still below the overall pace set in 2010. Moreover, existing home sales fell 3.8 percent in May to the fewest since November 2010." "The Federal Reserve also reiterated that the housing sector continues to be depressed in its June 22nd policy committee statement. The S&P/Case-Shiller® National Home Price Index fell 2.1 percent between the fourth quarter of 2010 and first quarter 2011. Based on a recent survey by MarcoMarkets of 108 professional forecasters taken in early June, the index is predicted to decline another 1.5 percent by the fourth quarter of this year."
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Is it the right time to buy a home?
I liked this article below from the Wall Street Journal. Only you know what is best for your lifestyle and what you want out of a home. A home is a great investment as long as you plan on staying a few years and not using your home as a piggy bank. I am a realist and believe that the Denver market is faring much better than many across the country. People want to live here. We have a great climate, jobs, educational system, the mountains close by, and not to mention some pretty amazing residents.
Back in June 2006, when the housing market peaked, the prospect of a five-year national housing bust seemed unimaginable to most people. And yet here we are, with the latest Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index showing that prices hit new bear-market lows, falling back to 2002 levels nationally and to 1990s levels in some battered regions.
Despite all the gloom, however, there are growing indications that it is a good time to buy. Mortgage rates, which fell to 4.55% for the week ending June 2, according to Freddie Mac, are near 50-year lows. Homes have become more affordable than they have been in years: According to Moody's Analytics, the ratio of home prices to income is now 20.9% lower than the 15-year average through 2010, and 12.5% lower than the 1989-2004 average. A historic glut of homes, meanwhile, has created a buyer's market: There were about 15 million vacant homes in the U.S. last year, according to John Burns Real Estate ConsultingInc.—some 3.1 million more than normal.
Such conditions might not last long. Moody's Analytics predicts that the number of distressed sales will begin to fall in 2013, and that prices will begin to edge upward then. Home building is at a virtual standstill, so the supply overhang isn't likely to get much worse. Meanwhile, demographic indicators such as "household formation"—the number of new households each year—are on the rise, and promise to take a bite out of the glut in coming years.
The upshot: "While we might not see rapid growth in the next couple of years, there are a tremendous number of positive signs that could lead to a rebound," says Anthony Sanders, a real-estate finance professor at George Mason University.
The short-term outlook isn't encouraging. Job growth remains weak, foreclosure sales are making up more of the market, and economists are predicting that home prices will fall more in the coming months.
But the long-term benefits of homeownership remain very much intact. For now, at least, you can deduct the mortgage interest on your taxes—a big perk for people in higher tax brackets. You get to paint your walls any color you wish, without having to clear it with a landlord. And assuming you can buy a home for about the same price as you can rent one, buying will give you the ability one day to live rent-free. Come retirement time, a paid-off mortgage means your monthly expenses are significantly reduced, and you have a chunk of equity to play with.
So what might the next five years look like? Once the foreclosure mess begins to clear up, say housing economists, the traditional drivers of the housing market—demographics, affordability, loan availability, employment and psychology—should take over.
Here is a glimmer of what the future may hold: While overall home prices fell by 7.5% in April over the same period a year earlier, according to CoreLogic, a Santa Ana, Calif., provider of real-estate data and analytics, if you exclude distressed sales, prices were off just 0.5%. So if you are in a market that isn't battered by foreclosures, you may be close to a bottom already.
"The regular marketplace is hanging tough," says CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming.
Back in June 2006, when the housing market peaked, the prospect of a five-year national housing bust seemed unimaginable to most people. And yet here we are, with the latest Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index showing that prices hit new bear-market lows, falling back to 2002 levels nationally and to 1990s levels in some battered regions.
Despite all the gloom, however, there are growing indications that it is a good time to buy. Mortgage rates, which fell to 4.55% for the week ending June 2, according to Freddie Mac, are near 50-year lows. Homes have become more affordable than they have been in years: According to Moody's Analytics, the ratio of home prices to income is now 20.9% lower than the 15-year average through 2010, and 12.5% lower than the 1989-2004 average. A historic glut of homes, meanwhile, has created a buyer's market: There were about 15 million vacant homes in the U.S. last year, according to John Burns Real Estate ConsultingInc.—some 3.1 million more than normal.
Such conditions might not last long. Moody's Analytics predicts that the number of distressed sales will begin to fall in 2013, and that prices will begin to edge upward then. Home building is at a virtual standstill, so the supply overhang isn't likely to get much worse. Meanwhile, demographic indicators such as "household formation"—the number of new households each year—are on the rise, and promise to take a bite out of the glut in coming years.
The upshot: "While we might not see rapid growth in the next couple of years, there are a tremendous number of positive signs that could lead to a rebound," says Anthony Sanders, a real-estate finance professor at George Mason University.
The short-term outlook isn't encouraging. Job growth remains weak, foreclosure sales are making up more of the market, and economists are predicting that home prices will fall more in the coming months.
But the long-term benefits of homeownership remain very much intact. For now, at least, you can deduct the mortgage interest on your taxes—a big perk for people in higher tax brackets. You get to paint your walls any color you wish, without having to clear it with a landlord. And assuming you can buy a home for about the same price as you can rent one, buying will give you the ability one day to live rent-free. Come retirement time, a paid-off mortgage means your monthly expenses are significantly reduced, and you have a chunk of equity to play with.
So what might the next five years look like? Once the foreclosure mess begins to clear up, say housing economists, the traditional drivers of the housing market—demographics, affordability, loan availability, employment and psychology—should take over.
Here is a glimmer of what the future may hold: While overall home prices fell by 7.5% in April over the same period a year earlier, according to CoreLogic, a Santa Ana, Calif., provider of real-estate data and analytics, if you exclude distressed sales, prices were off just 0.5%. So if you are in a market that isn't battered by foreclosures, you may be close to a bottom already.
"The regular marketplace is hanging tough," says CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming.
Monday, May 23, 2011
What is happening nationally with existing home sales at this time?

On my drive into the office this morning, I could not believe how green everything has become. It is so nice to see that spring has arrived here in Denver. I get asked this question often and believe even though there is a dip in existing home sales, there is still a lot of activity going on. I have been running into multiple offer situations in all different neighborhoods and rates are still extremely low. My friends that are recruiters have been busy and that is a great sign for a recovering job market, which in turn, will allow people to purchase homes. Although our Denver market is doing better than most housing markets in the country, I think it is a good to keep an eye on the overall housing market too.
Existing-home sales slipped in April, although the market has managed six gains in the past nine months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, eased 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million in April from a downwardly revised 5.09 million in March, and are 12.9 percent below a 5.80 million pace in April 2010; sales surged in April and May of 2010 in response to the home buyer tax credit.
Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, eased 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million in April from a downwardly revised 5.09 million in March, and are 12.9 percent below a 5.80 million pace in April 2010; sales surged in April and May of 2010 in response to the home buyer tax credit.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the market is underperforming. “Given the great affordability conditions, job creation and pent-up demand, home sales should be stronger,” he says. “Although existing-home sales are expected to trend up unevenly through next year, unnecessarily tight credit is continuing to restrain the market, along with a steady level of low appraisals that result in contract cancellations.”
A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows 11 percent of Realtors® report a contract was cancelled in April from an appraisal coming in below the price negotiated between a buyer and seller, 10 percent had a contract delayed, and 14 percent said a contract was renegotiated to a lower sales price as a result of a low appraisal.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.84 percent in April, unchanged from March; the rate was 5.10 percent in April 2010.
“Although sales are clearly up from the cyclical lows of last summer, home sales are being held back 15 to 20 percent due to the very restrictive loan underwriting standards,” Yun says.
All-cash transactions stood at 31 percent in April, down from a record level of 35 percent in March; they were 26 percent in March 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.
NAR President Ron Phipps says the lending community needs to return to sensible standards. “We want to ensure that qualified buyers will be able to own their property on a sustained basis from a sound credit evaluation, but banks needn’t be so stingy as to only lend to those with the highest credit scores,” he comments.
“Very high shares of cash purchases, and high credit score requirements, have led to historically low default rates among home buyers over the past two years. This trend implies a gulf is opening between those who can and cannot have access to the American dream of home ownership,” Phipps says. “At the same time, existing guidelines from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae must be fully implemented so all appraisals are done by valuators with local expertise.”
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $163,700 in April, which is 5.0 percent below April 2010. Distressed homes—typically sold at a discount of about 20 percent—accounted for 37 percent of sales in April, down from 40 percent in March; they were 33 percent in April 2010.
“Home values, despite month-to-month volatility, have been remarkably stable in the range of $160,000 to $170,000 for the past three years,” Yun says. “Stable home prices in turn will steadily lower loan default rates, including strategic defaults.”
Total housing inventory at the end of April increased 9.9 percent to 3.87 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.3-month supply in March.
First-time buyers purchased 36 percent of homes in April, up from 33 percent in March; they were 49 percent in April 2010 when the tax credit was in place. Investors slipped to 20 percent in April from 22 percent of purchase activity in March; they were 15 percent in April 2010. The balance of sales was to repeat buyers, which were 44 percent in April.
Phipps adds that proposals and regulations are being considered in Washington that could further constrain the housing market. “One of the most damaging proposals would effectively raise downpayment requirements to 20 percent, which would slam the brakes on the housing market,” he says. “What we need to do is simply return to the sound standards that were in place before the introduction of risky mortgage products.”
“Our data shows only one out of five first-time buyers needing a mortgage could afford a 20 percent downpayment, and without first-time buyers the trade-up market would stall with very negative consequences for housing and the overall economy,” Phipps says. “Ironically, low downpayment FHA and VA loans, which are so critical to this segment, have performed well and never needed a taxpayer bailout because those borrowers stayed well within their budgets.” NAR consumer survey data shows 56 percent of entry level buyers in the past year financed with an FHA loan.
Phipps adds that proposals and regulations are being considered in Washington that could further constrain the housing market. “One of the most damaging proposals would effectively raise downpayment requirements to 20 percent, which would slam the brakes on the housing market,” he says. “What we need to do is simply return to the sound standards that were in place before the introduction of risky mortgage products.”
“Our data shows only one out of five first-time buyers needing a mortgage could afford a 20 percent downpayment, and without first-time buyers the trade-up market would stall with very negative consequences for housing and the overall economy,” Phipps says. “Ironically, low downpayment FHA and VA loans, which are so critical to this segment, have performed well and never needed a taxpayer bailout because those borrowers stayed well within their budgets.” NAR consumer survey data shows 56 percent of entry level buyers in the past year financed with an FHA loan.
Single-family home sales slipped 0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million in April from 4.44 million in March, and are 12.6 percent below the 5.06 million pace in April 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $163,200 in April, which is 5.4 percent below a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 630,000 in April from 650,000 in March, and are 15.0 percent below the 741,000-unit level one year ago. The median existing condo price5 was $167,300 in April, down 2.3 percent from April 2010.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
What is happening with rates at this time?
Our spring thaw of the housing market is here in the Denver metro area. I have been running into multiple offer situations on several homes with clients, all in different areas. It is good to remember that the right home works out the way it is supposed to, but if you find a home you love that is also in good condition, it is best to not wait too long before making a decision. I, personally, am not the most handy person, so better have the work done in my case. Some projects are always a good idea at the time for everyone though!
After releasing various reports of economic data this past week, it was evident that the economic recovery is at a slower pace than anticipated which, in turn, produced the lowest mortgage rates so far for this year 2011. Towards the end of the week, Freerateupdate.com's daily survey of wholesale and direct lenders showed that conforming 30 year fixed mortgage rates had dropped .125% to a new low of 4.375%. Remaining the same at last week's lows, 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 3.750% and 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.000%. Conforming fixed rate mortgage loans are popular with borrowers who want the same mortgage payment for the life of the loan. Available with 0.7 to 1% origination fee, these are the lowest mortgage rates for borrowers who have good credit and can obtain lender approval.
FHA 30 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.250%, still lower than conforming 30 year fixed mortgage rates. FHA 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.000% and FHA 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.375%, both slightly higher than the comparable conforming mortgage rates. FHA mortgage loans are often used by borrowers, especially first time home buyers, who enjoy the benefit of low down payment requirements. Borrowers who have less than perfect credit also turn to FHA for their mortgage needs. In return for these benefits, FHA closing costs (APR) are higher because of various FHA fees and the upfront mortgage insurance premium.
Holding their own, jumbo mortgage rates are still at favorable lows which is a major benefit for high end borrowers. Current jumbo 30 year fixed mortgage rates are at 5.125%, jumbo 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.500% and jumbo 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages are at 3.625%, all remaining the same this past week. Jumbo mortgage loans are necessary for mortgage financing above the conforming loan limit which is $417,000 to $729,250, depending on location of the property. These are the lowest jumbo mortgage rates available with 0.7 to 1% origination fee to borrowers who have maintained outstanding credit.
MBS prices (mortgage backed securities) fluctuated over the past week. Mortgage rates move up and down in the opposite direction of MBS prices. With lower mortgage rates in the limelight, there has been an increase in both purchases and refinances as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association. It was reported that private sector jobs increased which was positive news. On the other hand, jobless claims increased as well as the unemployment rate for the month of April. While the positive news indicates an economic recovery, the negative news reflects a weaker and slower recovery. These mixed reports have continued to create uncertainty for investors trying to determine which ones reflect the true state of the economy. At the end of last week, the price of crude oil dropped significantly bringing about more questions. In the end, negative economic news has been resulting in lower mortgage rates which is a plus for borrowers, especially as the home buying season is under way.
After releasing various reports of economic data this past week, it was evident that the economic recovery is at a slower pace than anticipated which, in turn, produced the lowest mortgage rates so far for this year 2011. Towards the end of the week, Freerateupdate.com's daily survey of wholesale and direct lenders showed that conforming 30 year fixed mortgage rates had dropped .125% to a new low of 4.375%. Remaining the same at last week's lows, 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 3.750% and 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.000%. Conforming fixed rate mortgage loans are popular with borrowers who want the same mortgage payment for the life of the loan. Available with 0.7 to 1% origination fee, these are the lowest mortgage rates for borrowers who have good credit and can obtain lender approval.
FHA 30 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.250%, still lower than conforming 30 year fixed mortgage rates. FHA 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.000% and FHA 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.375%, both slightly higher than the comparable conforming mortgage rates. FHA mortgage loans are often used by borrowers, especially first time home buyers, who enjoy the benefit of low down payment requirements. Borrowers who have less than perfect credit also turn to FHA for their mortgage needs. In return for these benefits, FHA closing costs (APR) are higher because of various FHA fees and the upfront mortgage insurance premium.
Holding their own, jumbo mortgage rates are still at favorable lows which is a major benefit for high end borrowers. Current jumbo 30 year fixed mortgage rates are at 5.125%, jumbo 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.500% and jumbo 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages are at 3.625%, all remaining the same this past week. Jumbo mortgage loans are necessary for mortgage financing above the conforming loan limit which is $417,000 to $729,250, depending on location of the property. These are the lowest jumbo mortgage rates available with 0.7 to 1% origination fee to borrowers who have maintained outstanding credit.
MBS prices (mortgage backed securities) fluctuated over the past week. Mortgage rates move up and down in the opposite direction of MBS prices. With lower mortgage rates in the limelight, there has been an increase in both purchases and refinances as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association. It was reported that private sector jobs increased which was positive news. On the other hand, jobless claims increased as well as the unemployment rate for the month of April. While the positive news indicates an economic recovery, the negative news reflects a weaker and slower recovery. These mixed reports have continued to create uncertainty for investors trying to determine which ones reflect the true state of the economy. At the end of last week, the price of crude oil dropped significantly bringing about more questions. In the end, negative economic news has been resulting in lower mortgage rates which is a plus for borrowers, especially as the home buying season is under way.
Monday, April 25, 2011
What is happening with existing home sales at this time?

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expects the improving sales pattern to continue. “Existing-home sales have risen in six of the past eight months, so we’re clearly on a recovery path,” he said. “With rising jobs and excellent affordability conditions, we project moderate improvements into 2012, but not every month will show a gain—primarily because some buyers are finding it too difficult to obtain a mortgage. For those fortunate enough to qualify for financing, monthly mortgage payments as a percent of income have been at record lows.”
NAR’s housing affordability index shows the typical monthly mortgage principal and interest payment for the purchase of a median-priced existing home is only 13% of gross household income, the lowest since records began in 1970.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.84% in March, down from 4.95% in February; the rate was 4.97% in March 2010.
Data from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae show requirements to obtain conventional mortgages have been tightened, with the average credit score rising to about 760 in the current market from nearly 720 in 2007; for FHA loans the average credit score is around 700, up from just over 630 in 2007.
“Although home sales are coming back without a federal stimulus, sales would be notably stronger if mortgage lending would return to the normal, safe standards that were in place a decade ago—before the loose lending practices that created the unprecedented boom and bust cycle,” Yun explained.
“Given that FHA and VA government-backed loan programs turned a modest profit over to the U.S. Treasury last year, and have never required a taxpayer bailout, we believe low-downpayment loans should continue to be available for those consumers who have demonstrated financial responsibility and are willing to stay well within their budget. Raising the downpayment requirement would unnecessarily deny credit to many worthy middle-class families and veterans,” Yun said.
A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 33% of homes in March, compared with 34% of homes in February; they were 44% in March 2010.
All-cash sales were at a record market share of 35% in March, up from 33% in February; they were 27% in March 2010. Investors accounted for 22% of sales activity in March, up from 19% in February; they were 19% in March 2010. The balance of sales were to repeat buyers.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $159,600 in March, down 5.9% from March 2010. Distressed homes—typically sold at discounts in the vicinity of 20%—accounted for a 40% marketshare in March, up from 39% in February and 35% in March 2010.
NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said some renters are looking to homeownership as a hedge against inflation. “The typical buyer today plans to stay in a home for 10 years, while rents are projected to rise at faster rates over the next few years,” he said. “As buyers gain more financial security, the advantages of homeownership become more obvious. Rents will continue to trend up, especially in comparison with a fixed-rate loan which provides financial stability and gradual accumulation of equity over time.”
Total housing inventory at the end of March rose 1.5% to 3.55 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.4-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with a 8.5-month supply in February.
Single-family home sales rose 4.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.45 million in March from 4.28 million in February, but are 6.5% below the 4.76 million level in March 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $160,500 in March, down 5.3% from a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 in March from 640,000 in February, but are 4.1% below the 678,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price was $153,100 in March, which is 10.1% below March 2010.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
What should buyers watch out for when buying a foreclosed home?
The economy is improving overall and, as a result, some bright spots are showing up in the real-estate market. However, the foreclosure spike, which began around the same time the recession did, isn’t a distant memory just yet. In many areas, foreclosures are still happening; in some areas, those numbers have increased. Surprisingly, foreclosures have even encroached into some key cities that were formerly thought to be unshakable real-estate markets — like San Francisco, where foreclosures actually rose in 2010 (including in luxury neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, where a condo that sold in 2007 for $2.3 million recently sold for $1.44 million as a foreclosure). This “second wave” of foreclosures – combined with the fact that many people’s 401(k)s have bounced back with the stock market, and most economists agree that the bottom of the recession has hit – means that competition for these foreclosed homes is, in many cases, fierce. There’s a renewed, final dash to get in on what some perceive as the best real-estate deals they’ll get in awhile. But how do you know which foreclosure is a good buy, and which to walk by? Here are some tips: Get it checked out by a pro. Perhaps the most essential point: Never go by looks alone as an indicator of whether a foreclosure is a good buy. A $2 million mansion may look gorgeous on the surface but might have toxic mold hiding beneath, which will require extremely pricey, lengthy repairs. On the other hand, a brick bungalow or ranch may look dilapidated but may have excellent bones and can be repaired at reasonable cost. A certified, professional home inspector must be contracted to check out a property, to determine what repairs need to be done — so you can truly assess whether it’s worth it for yourself. Don’t rely solely on previous inspections, even if relatively recent – a vacant home can deteriorate quite a bit in a short time, especially in an area with climate extremes. Don’t abandon common real-estate logic. Too many people, when shopping for a foreclosure, abandon their real-estate sense and focus on price alone. Remember, things like a sub-par location, poor light, terrible view, below-average school district, high local crime rate and other negatives might be part of the reason why a home went into foreclosure in the first place. Don’t assume that financial problems of the previous owner are the main reason for every foreclosure. The last owner may have bought the home ignoring some of the aforementioned problems, and seen value sink because of them. Don’t ignore those problems, especially if you are considering selling in the next 5 to 10 years. Find out how long the home has been empty; the longer it has, the more of a chance this isn’t a good deal. Also, if there are plenty of other foreclosures nearby, that’s also a bad sign. Skip – or, at least, very strongly rethink – the flip. “House-flipping,” i.e., buying at bargain-basement pricing, updating, then selling for much higher – is very 2006… and hasn’t exactly been hot since. Even if a house looks like an incredible flipping opportunity, beware of this temptation unless you are a pro, with incredible contractor connections. I always tell my clients it more than likely will take twice as long and cost twice as much they think they’ll be spending to fix up the home. Buyers should avoid the temptation to make fast money unless they think it through and talk to their real-estate professional, a home inspector, contractors – and possibly even a therapist! Go over your budget. A fixer-upper means nothing if you can’t afford to fix it up – and that’s especially true for foreclosures, where those fixes can cost a pretty penny. Before buying, make sure you have an ample budget to do all the repairs needed, after truly taking stock (with the help of a home inspector) of what those needs are. Make sure you have at least half of that money in cash, and preferably all of it. You don’t want to take more loans than needed, especially private loans, which shouldn’t be taking at all – the interest on them will, little by little, chip away at the initial foreclosure bargain. Do your homework on lenders. Fewer people are getting financing for home-buying than they did before the recession, but good financing is luckily still available to many qualified buyers. Just make sure, as with regular home buying, that you enlist a reputable lender. A good lender will take the time to do a review of your client’s financial life and long- and short-term goals, to truly pick the best solution for you, rather than just spitting out options. Also ask about hidden costs, rate locks, prepayment penalties, origination fees and whether underwriting is done in-house. Make sure everything is explained to you clearly. These are things that many people do during the standard home-buying process, but might gloss over when lured by a low foreclosure price tag.
Monday, March 28, 2011
A Closer Look at February Existing-Home Sales Following Sustained Gains
Existing-home sales fell in February following three straight monthly increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales—completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—dropped 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million in February from an upwardly revised 5.40 million in January, and are 2.8 percent below the 5.02 million pace in February 2010. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expects an uneven recovery. “Housing affordability conditions have been at record levels and the economy has been improving, but home sales are being constrained by the twin problems of unnecessarily tight credit, and a measurable level of contract cancellations from some appraisals not supporting prices negotiated between buyers and sellers,” he says. “This tug and pull is causing a gradual but uneven recovery. Existing-home sales remain 26.4 percent above the cyclical low last July.” A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 34 percent of homes in February, up from 29 percent in January; they were 42 percent in February 2010. All-cash sales were a record 33 percent in February, up from 32 percent in January; they were 27 percent in February 2010. Investors accounted for 19 percent of sales activity in February, down from 23 percent in January; they were 19 percent in February 2010. The balance of sales were to repeat buyers. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $156,100 in February, which is 5.2 percent below February 2010. Distressed homes—sold at discount—accounted for a 39 percent market share in February, up from 37 percent in January and 35 percent in February 2010. “The decline in price corresponds to the record level of all-cash purchases where buyers—largely investors—are snapping up homes at bargain prices,” explains Yun. “We’d be seeing greater numbers of traditional home buyers if mortgage credit conditions return to normal.” NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., says buyers should look into loan availability as soon as they decide they want to buy. “Despite very affordable mortgage interest rates, credit remains a challenge—buyers should check their personal credit, and mortgage availability in their area,” says Phipps. “Realtors® are an excellent resource to learn about all of the marketplace factors, but in this tight credit environment it’s important to learn up-front what a lender might be willing to offer as well as specific programs that might be available in your location,” Phipps explains. Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 3.5 percent to 3.49 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 7.5-month supply in January. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.95 percent in February from 4.76 percent in January; the rate was 4.99 percent in February 2010. Single-family home sales fell 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million in February from 4.70 million in January, and are 2.7 percent below the 4.37 million pace in February 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $157,000 in February, which is 4.2 percent below a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 10.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 630,000 in February from 700,000 in January, and are 3.1 percent lower than the 650,000-unit level one year ago. The median existing condo price was $150,400 in February, down 11.1 percent from February 2010. Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 7.2 percent to an annual pace of 770,000 in February and are 8.3 percent below February 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $230,200, down 9.5 percent from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 12.2 percent in February to a level of 1.01 million and are 9.0 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $122,000, which is 5.4 percent below February 2010. In the South, existing-home sales fell 10.2 percent to an annual pace of 1.84 million in February but are unchanged from February 2010. The median price in the South was $134,600, down 3.9 percent from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the West declined 8.0 percent to an annual level of 1.26 million in February and are 2.4 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $190,000, which is 5.2 percent below January 2010.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
What is happening with Denver area home sales at this time?
Is spring here in Denver? It certainly seems like it from these warmer temperatures. We know though that can all change here from week to week and sometimes day to day. This was an informative article from the Denver Post I wanted to share with good statistical information.
As consumer confidence increased in February, so did the number of homes sold in metro Denver, according to data released Wednesday.
The number of homes sold rose 3.4 percent in February to 2,229, compared with 2,156 the previous month, according to an analysis of Metrolist data.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in January, improved further in February. The index stands at 70.4, up from 64.8 in January.
The number of homes sold in February was still down 8.5 percent compared with February 2010, when 2,436 sales closed.
The year-over-year decline is largely a result of the first- time-homebuyer tax credit expiring last year. The credit on home purchases drove about 40 percent of sales activity a year ago, said Gary Bauer, an independent real-estate consultant.
"Take that out of there, and look at what we have today, and it's really positive," Bauer said. "I'm very happy with what the numbers show. We've got activity."
The median price for a single-family home declined 2.2 percent, from $225,000 in January to $220,000 last month. In February 2010, the median price was $220,750.
The median price for a condo dipped 0.17 percent to $124,780, compared with $124,995 in January. In February 2010, the median price was $132,500.
"When you look at it as far as pricing goes, 71 percent of the condos closed this month were less than $200,000," Bauer said. "That's very positive."
With 18,685 homes on the market last month, the inventory has remained stable, declining 0.6 percent from January and 3.4 percent from February last year.
"There's always the fear that inventory will rise much faster than the market can handle," Bauer said. "We're about a month away from the start of our prime season, so people are putting their homes on the market at the right time.
As consumer confidence increased in February, so did the number of homes sold in metro Denver, according to data released Wednesday.
The number of homes sold rose 3.4 percent in February to 2,229, compared with 2,156 the previous month, according to an analysis of Metrolist data.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in January, improved further in February. The index stands at 70.4, up from 64.8 in January.
The number of homes sold in February was still down 8.5 percent compared with February 2010, when 2,436 sales closed.
The year-over-year decline is largely a result of the first- time-homebuyer tax credit expiring last year. The credit on home purchases drove about 40 percent of sales activity a year ago, said Gary Bauer, an independent real-estate consultant.
"Take that out of there, and look at what we have today, and it's really positive," Bauer said. "I'm very happy with what the numbers show. We've got activity."
The median price for a single-family home declined 2.2 percent, from $225,000 in January to $220,000 last month. In February 2010, the median price was $220,750.
The median price for a condo dipped 0.17 percent to $124,780, compared with $124,995 in January. In February 2010, the median price was $132,500.
"When you look at it as far as pricing goes, 71 percent of the condos closed this month were less than $200,000," Bauer said. "That's very positive."
With 18,685 homes on the market last month, the inventory has remained stable, declining 0.6 percent from January and 3.4 percent from February last year.
"There's always the fear that inventory will rise much faster than the market can handle," Bauer said. "We're about a month away from the start of our prime season, so people are putting their homes on the market at the right time.
Monday, February 28, 2011
How Are Existing Home Sales Doing At This Time?

The uptrend in existing-home sales continues, with January 2011 sales rising for the third consecutive month with a pace that is now above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.36 million in January from a downwardly revised 5.22 million in December, and are 5.3% above the 5.09 million level in January 2010. This is the first time in seven months that sales activity was higher than a year earlier.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the improvement is good but could be better. “The uptrend in home sales is consistent with improvements in the economy and jobs, which are helping boost consumer confidence,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “The extremely favorable housing affordability conditions are a big factor, but buyers have been constrained by unnecessarily tight credit. As a result, there are abnormally high levels of all-cash purchases, along with rising investor activity.”
A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 29% of homes in January, down from 33% in December and 40% in January 2010 when an extended tax credit was in place.
Investors accounted for 23% of purchases in January, up from 20% in December and 17% in January 2010; the balance of sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales rose to 32% in January from 29% in December and 26% in January 2010.
“Increases in all-cash transactions, the investor market share and distressed home sales all go hand-in-hand. With tight credit standards, it’s not surprising to see so much activity where cash is king and investors are taking advantage of conditions to purchase undervalued homes,” Yun said.
All-cash purchases are at the highest level since NAR started measuring these purchases monthly in October 2008, when they accounted for 15% of the market. The average of all-cash deals was 20% in 2009, rising to 28% last year.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $158,800 in January, down 3.7% from January 2010. Distressed homes edged up to a 37% market share in January from 36% in December; it was 38% in January 2010.
NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said the median price is being dampened by unusual market factors.
“Unprecedented levels of all-cash purchases, primarily of distressed homes sold at deep discounts, undoubtedly pulls the median price downward,” Phipps said. “Given the levels of inventory we see today, we believe that traditional homes in good condition have held their value.”
Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 5.1% to 3.38 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 8.2-month supply in December. The inventory supply is at the lowest level since December 2009 when there was a 7.3-month supply.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.76% in January from 4.71% in December; the rate was 5.03% in January 2010.
Single-family home sales rose 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.69 million in January from 4.58 million in December, and are 4.9% higher than the 4.47 million level in January 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $159,400 in January, down 2.7% from a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 in January from 640,000 in December, and are 7.9% above the 621,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price was $154,900 in January, which is 10.2% below January 2010.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 4.6% to an annual pace of 830,000 in January from a spike in December and are 1.2% below January 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $236,500, which is 4.0% below a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 1.8% in January to a level of 1.14 million and are 3.6% above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $126,300, which is 3.2% below January 2010.
In the South, existing-home sales increased 3.6% to an annual pace of 2.02 million in January and are 8.0% higher than January 2010. The median price in the South was $136,600, down 2.1% from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West rose 7.9% to an annual level of 1.37 million in January and are 7.0% above January 2010. The median price in the West was $193,200, down 5.7% from a year ago.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
How is the Denver real estate market compared to other metro areas?

Denver-area homes on average lost 2.4 percent in December from December 2009, shows the report that tracks 20 major metropolitan statistical areas. The decline was the same as the overall drop for all 20 cities and Denver was the seventh best performing city in the index on a year-over-year basis. Washington, D.C. was No. 1, with homes rising 4.1 percent. San Diego, the only other city in positive territory, showed a 1.7 percent increase. San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, and New York also did better than Denver. From November to December, Denver showed a 0.7 percent drop, compared to a 1 percent drop for all 20 cities.
Denver in a good place
“It really sounds like a pretty good win for Denver,” said Peter Niederman, CEO of the Kentwood Co. “It sounds like Denver fared pretty well. I think Denver is in a pretty good spot right now. We’re seeing good traffic and showings, although they are not turning into contracts as much as we had hoped to see. Still, traffic is a leading indicator. And we are seeing traffic at all price points. I still hold to my prediction that when the year is over, we will be up 3 percent to 5 percent from last year. The first quarter and second quarter will be kind of hard to compare to Q1 and Q2 of last year, because we had the tax incentives in the first part of 2010, while we don’t have them anymore.” More than anything, what will help Denver and the nation’s housing market is job growth and a drop in the unemployment rate, he said. “When there is job growth, people will feel like there is more security in their jobs,” Niederman said. “Until then, we will kind of bounce around at the bottom. Sometimes we will drift a little bit lower and sometimes we will drift a bit higher.”
National view weak
From a national perspective, David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, was not very bullish.
“We ended 2010 with a weak report,” Blitzer said. “The National Index (at Case-Shiller) is down 4.1% from the fourth quarter of 2009 and 18 of 20 cities are down over the last 12 months. Both monthly Composites and the National Index are moving closer to their 2009 troughs. The National Index is within a percentage point of the low it set in the first quarter of 2009. Despite improvements in the overall economy, housing continues to drift lower and weaker.
“We ended 2010 with a weak report,” Blitzer said. “The National Index (at Case-Shiller) is down 4.1% from the fourth quarter of 2009 and 18 of 20 cities are down over the last 12 months. Both monthly Composites and the National Index are moving closer to their 2009 troughs. The National Index is within a percentage point of the low it set in the first quarter of 2009. Despite improvements in the overall economy, housing continues to drift lower and weaker.
“Unlike the 2006 to 2009 period when all cities saw prices move together, we see some differing stories around the country,” Blitzer continued. “California is doing better with gains from their low points in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco. At the other end is the Sun Belt – Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa. All four made new lows in December. Also seeing renewed weakness are some cities that were among the last to reach their peaks including Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland and Seattle, where news lows were also seen. Dallas, which peaked late, has so far stayed above its low marked in February 2009.”
The report shows that the 10- and 20-City Composite indices remain above their spring 2009 lows; however, 11 markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007. More markets hit new lows in each of the past three months.
“Looking deeper into the monthly data, 19 MSAs and both Composites were down in December over November,” Blitzer said. “The only one which wasn’t was Washington DC, up 0.3%. With December 2010 index levels of 99.73 and 99.48, respectively, Cleveland and Las Vegas have the dubious distinction of average home prices now below their January 2000 levels. Detroit was the only market that was in that group prior to December.”
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Changes in FHA Mortgage Insurance Premium
Many home buyers, especially first time buyers, choose to do FHA financing. I think it is a great choice if you want to conserve upfront cash. FHA financing requires you to only put down a 3.5% down payment and rates are similar to conventional financing. A mortgage expert can go over the different types of loans with you and find which one works best for your own personal situation. FHA has recently announced that a monthly mortgage insurance premium increase will come into play on new loans starting on or after April 18th. The article below explains more.
FHA Announces Monthly Mortgage Insurance (MIP) Increase
Feb 15, 2011 (www.mortgageorb.com)
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has announced a new premium structure for FHA-insured mortgage loans that increases its annual mortgage insurance premium (MIP) by a quarter of a percentage point on all 15- and 30-year loans. The up-front MIP will remain unchanged at 1% and will impact new loans insured by the FHA on or after April 18.
According to the FHA, this premium change enables the agency to increase revenues to preserve the stability of its Mutual Mortgage Insurance fund, which had capital reserves of approximately $3.6 billion at the end of fiscal year 2010. The change is estimated to contribute nearly $3 billion annually to the fund, based on current volume projections.
Furthermore, the FHA estimates that on average, new borrowers will pay approximately $30 more per month.
"After careful consideration and analysis, we determined it was necessary to increase the annual mortgage insurance premium at this time in order to bolster the FHA's capital reserves and help private capital return to the housing market," says FHA Commissioner David H. Stevens. "This quarter point increase in the annual MIP is a responsible step towards meeting the congressionally mandated two percent reserve threshold, while allowing FHA to remain the most cost-effective mortgage insurance option for borrowers with lower incomes and lower down payments."
Here are the 7 things you need to know about these changes:
These changes are effective April 18th, 2011.
1. The Annual Insurance Premium will increase .25% for standard forward mortgages.
2. The Upfront Mortgage Insurance remains at 1.00%.
3. The Annual Premium is now 1.15% for LTV’s GREATER than 95% on 30 year loans.
4. The Annual Premium is now 1.10% for LTV’s EQUAL to or LESS than 95% on 30 year loans.
5. The Annual Premium is now .50% for LTV’s GREATER than 90% on 15 year loans.
6. The Annual Premium is now .25% for LTV’s EQUAL to or LESS than 90% on 15 year loans.
7. Case numbers with no activity for 6 months will automatically be canceled (includes case numbers pulled prior to April 18th, 2011).
FHA Announces Monthly Mortgage Insurance (MIP) Increase
Feb 15, 2011 (www.mortgageorb.com)
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has announced a new premium structure for FHA-insured mortgage loans that increases its annual mortgage insurance premium (MIP) by a quarter of a percentage point on all 15- and 30-year loans. The up-front MIP will remain unchanged at 1% and will impact new loans insured by the FHA on or after April 18.
According to the FHA, this premium change enables the agency to increase revenues to preserve the stability of its Mutual Mortgage Insurance fund, which had capital reserves of approximately $3.6 billion at the end of fiscal year 2010. The change is estimated to contribute nearly $3 billion annually to the fund, based on current volume projections.
Furthermore, the FHA estimates that on average, new borrowers will pay approximately $30 more per month.
"After careful consideration and analysis, we determined it was necessary to increase the annual mortgage insurance premium at this time in order to bolster the FHA's capital reserves and help private capital return to the housing market," says FHA Commissioner David H. Stevens. "This quarter point increase in the annual MIP is a responsible step towards meeting the congressionally mandated two percent reserve threshold, while allowing FHA to remain the most cost-effective mortgage insurance option for borrowers with lower incomes and lower down payments."
Here are the 7 things you need to know about these changes:
These changes are effective April 18th, 2011.
1. The Annual Insurance Premium will increase .25% for standard forward mortgages.
2. The Upfront Mortgage Insurance remains at 1.00%.
3. The Annual Premium is now 1.15% for LTV’s GREATER than 95% on 30 year loans.
4. The Annual Premium is now 1.10% for LTV’s EQUAL to or LESS than 95% on 30 year loans.
5. The Annual Premium is now .50% for LTV’s GREATER than 90% on 15 year loans.
6. The Annual Premium is now .25% for LTV’s EQUAL to or LESS than 90% on 15 year loans.
7. Case numbers with no activity for 6 months will automatically be canceled (includes case numbers pulled prior to April 18th, 2011).
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
What are some tips to keep in mind if you are thinking about becoming a real estate investor?

What is real estate investing?
Real estate can be a great long-term investment. It is a tangible, cash-generating asset and appreciates in value. Real estate investment has proven to be a powerful method of accumulating wealth over time and investors are getting a return on their investment (ROI) in three ways: cash flow, return on taxes and appreciation.
What are the benefits of real estate investing?
The main benefit of real estate investing is the profit that you can make if you handle your investment correctly. Having a rental property provides a source of regular income, but other than that, investment properties qualify for numerous tax deductions which may include cost of building maintenance and repairs and interest paid on loans related to the property.
Are you looking to rent or flip?
Before you start looking at properties, you should decide on what you are going to do with the property once you attain it. If you choose to buy, hold and rent it, take into consideration the responsibility it takes to be a landlord. You will need a lease agreement specifying what you will be responsible for maintaining, fixing, etc. and what the tenants will be responsible for like amount of rent, date of payments, leasing length, etc. Becoming a landlord can turn into a very profitable venture if you make sure you are well-versed in property management, including fair housing laws and eviction and collection procedures. While you can self-manage, it may be wise to outsource this to a local experienced and qualified property management company. Either way, you must maintain the property to best preserve its value so it can eventually be sold at a significant profit.
If you choose to flip the property, you must take into account any and all property updates and repairs that need to be made. The term “flipping” means that you purchase a home, repair it and resell for profit. Both renting and flipping can be substantial financial investments, so make sure you have a reasonable budget in mind for the possible updates that will need to be made. Flipping a home can be considered less of a responsibility than becoming a landlord, but you must keep in mind that someone will be living in the home you are flipping and you want to make sure they will find it worth their money to purchase and move into. Consult your attorney and lender for restrictions on flipping. Keep in mind that flipping may not be the wise choice in a down housing economy.
How are your finances?
The better your credit, the more likely you will be able to get a decent loan. Since lenders know people are more likely to default on investment property, they usually require bigger down payments, higher interest rates and stronger finances for rental property investors. It will also be prudent to have a cash reserve left over after buying the property to put toward unexpected vacancies, maintenance and repairs. Typically the lender will require 20-25% down on an investor loan. In some instances a 10% down payment may suffice.
Additional considerations-Location, location, location. If you decide on renting your investment property, make sure it is in an area where you can attract tenants. The same rules apply for finding a home to flip. When trying to sell a home, if it is located in a strong resale area, not only will you have a shorter hold time, but you will likely benefit from a greater return. Be sure to seek out a real estate agent that has experience advising investors not just owner-occupants.
Timeline and budget-Having a reasonable, realistic timeline and budget for repairs will prepare you for success in your investment venture. Make sure to stick to the guidelines you set for yourself so you can end up with as much profit as possible and not overpay for your investment. Do not over-improve. This is not your personal residence. Only make improvements that will either make it more attractive to sell/rent, and/or will reduce your hold or vacancy time and ultimately show a return on your investment. There will always be unforeseen issues that may hold up construction or unexpected costs, but make allowances for such problems and you will stay on track.
Where can I find an affordable home to invest in?
With home prices at an all-time low, we are currently in a buyer’s market. There are many houses on the market being sold well below tax value that are just waiting to have a little TLC given to them to make them shine again. Seek out a real estate professional that specializes in real estate owned (REO), short sale and distressed properties and who also has experience working with investors.
Friday, January 28, 2011
How Are Existing Home Sales Doing?

Existing-home sales rose sharply in December 2010, when sales increased for the fifth time in the past six months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million in December from an upwardly revised 4.70 million in November, but remain 2.9% below the 5.44 million pace in December 2009.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales are on an uptrend. “December was a good finish to 2010, when sales fluctuate more than normal. The pattern over the past six months is clearly showing a recovery,” he said. “The December pace is near the volume we’re expecting for 2011, so the market is getting much closer to an adequate, sustainable level. The recovery will likely continue as job growth gains momentum and rising rents encourage more renters into ownership while exceptional affordability conditions remain.”
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $168,800 in December, which is 1.0% below December 2009. Distressed homes rose to a 36% market share in December from 33% in November, and 32% in December 2009. “The modest rise in distressed sales, which typically are discounted 10 to 15 percent relative to traditional homes, dampened the median price in December, but the flat price trend continues,” Yun explained.
Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 4.2% to 3.56 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in November.
NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said buyers are responding to very good affordability conditions despite tight mortgage credit. “Historically low mortgage interest rates, stable home prices, and pent-up demand are drawing home buyers into the market,” Phipps said. “Recent home buyers have been successful with very low default rates, given the outstanding performance for loans originated in 2009 and 2010.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.71% in December from 4.30% in November; the rate was 4.93% in December 2009.
A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 33% of homes in December, up from 32% in November, but are below a 43% share in December 2009.
Investors accounted for 20% of transactions in December, up from 19% in November and 15% in December 2009; the balance of sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales were at 29% in December, compared with 31% in November, but up from 22% a year ago. “All-cash sales have been consistently high at about 30 percent of the market over the past six months,” Yun said.
Single-family home sales jumped 11.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.64 million in December from 4.15 million in November, but are 2.5% below the 4.76 million level in December 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $169,300 in December, down 0.2% from a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales surged 16.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 in December from 550,000 in November, but remain 5.2% below the 675,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price was $165,000 in December, which is 7.4% below December 2009.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 13.0% to an annual pace of 870,000 in December, but are 5.4% below December 2009. The median price in the Northeast was $237,300, which is 1.4% below a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 11.0% in December to a level of 1.11 million, but are 4.3% below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $139,700, up 3.3% from December 2009. In the South, existing-home sales increased 10.1% to an annual pace of 1.97 million in December, but are 2.5% below December 2009. The median price in the South was $148,400, unchanged from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the West surged 16.7% to an annual level of 1.33 million in December, but remain 1.5% below December 2009. The median price in the West was $204,000, down 5.6% from a year ago.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Pre-sale Renovations: Home Seller Do's and Don'ts

You’ve probably seen those depressingly cheery home-themed TV shows: a couple needs to sell their house, they have an outdated kitchen, and a designer comes in and proceeds to convince them to renovate the kitchen into a stainless-steel-clad shrine to culinary greatness—for tens of thousands of dollars. In an ideal real estate market, that would add value, but in today’s market, expensive pre-sale renovations, for the most part, aren’t worth it. The numbers bear this out: In general, a home remodel will cost quite a bit more than you’ll get back when you sell; remodels done in 2010 will only recoup 60% of their price when the house is sold, according to Remodeling magazine’s 2010 Remodeling Cost vs. Value survey, done in partnership with the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
Two of the areas that potential buyers are often most pressured to remodel before selling are the kitchen and bathroom. Here, we’ll tackle both of those rooms, and let you know what to do—and what to avoid—when considering a pre-sale renovation:
Kitchen-Don’t put in expensive professional-grade cook’s appliances. You may choose a tricked-out, $10,000 Wolf stove, but the buyer may be a loyalist to Viking. Or, even worse, the potential buyer might be a take-out addict.
-Do, however, service the appliances you have, so that they work perfectly. And, if you have seriously outdated appliances that can be replaced for $1,000 or less (like swapping a dingy old fridge for a basic new one), that’s a good idea. Similarly, if there are any appliances that you lack, which most buyers consider essential, it makes sense to buy one (like a dishwasher—you can get a nice model for under $1,000).
-Don’t replace your cabinetry entirely—even if it’s a little outdated. It’s just too subjective. You might think sleek, white Scandinavian cabinets are the way to go, but you’ll be in a bind if your potential buyer prefers dark wood.
-Do invest in cabinet refacing if your cabinets are extremely outdated. Many refacing companies will give your cabinets a fresh façade for well under $2,000, and it’s a good investment in creating a positive impression of the room without doing a pricey knock-down.
-Don’t go granite crazy. Or marble. Or etched-Murano-glass-accented tile. Spending thousands of dollars on a new countertop and backsplash is downright dangerous, as there are so many different options these days, it’s impossible to find one that will please most people.
-Do hire a professional cleaning company to come in and make what you have sparkle. While this won’t magically make your tile look magazine-spread-worthy, it will certainly make it look a lot better, as discoloration from age often makes tile look even worse.
Bathroom-Don’t do expensive tub/shower repairs or replacements. Just like with the big-ticket kitchen fixes, this is a matter of taste. If you put in a round jetted tub, what if the buyer wants square? And is an amethyst-crystal steam shower really something everyone will love?
-Do replace dated bath and shower fixtures; this can be done generally quite inexpensively. For instance, if you have a 30-year-old, tiny showerhead, replacing it with a large, rainwater-style model will lend a subtle spa-like quality without costing a lot.
-Don’t replace your smallish vanity with a new, built-in model. A lot of remodelers emphasize the intrinsically relaxing qualities of having all your toiletries, towels and even reading material beautifully organized in one big unit made of high-end wood, marble and chrome. And it is certainly beautiful. But it’s also a risky choice, and a matter of taste.
-Do freshen up the vanity area. Invest in a big mirror and put bright lights over it. And a few hundred dollars spent on a nice faucet is well worth it, as, like the showerhead, it’s a true basic—and updating the basics, in most homes and markets, is all you should be focusing on.
Other tips for redoing your kitchen and bathroom frugally
Kitchen:-Declutter your counters. A disorganized kitchen is a buyer-deterrent. Clean up the counters and pare down countertop items to the essentials—toaster, microwave, coffee pot and not much more than that.
-Keep your pantry and cabinetry clutter-free too. You don’t have to alphabetize your cereals—just know that potential buyers will probably open those cabinets, so they won’t want a ladle falling out on their head.
-Give your kitchen table or breakfast bar some life. It’s simple—placemats, a colorful vase or two and a tasteful flower arrangement will reinforce the idea that the kitchen is the heart of the home.
Bathroom:-If you want to add a little life to the wall, try a simple, straight-lined wood or stainless-steel floating shelf with a few candles on it. It’s an elegant, boutique-hotel touch that doesn’t cost much.
-Toss down a colorful floor mat. Bathrooms are often devoid of color; this is a great way to add that color, and a little warmth.
-Again, clear clutter. Even your beauty essentials shouldn’t be on the counter if you’re in the open house stage.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Housing Update for 2011
Housing will see gradual improvements in activity this year as the nation’s economy and job market continue to move to higher ground, establishing momentum that will produce more considerable gains in 2012, according to economists who appeared at the NAHB International Builders’ Show in Orlando on January 12.
“This year’s spring selling season will be better than last year’s,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, with job growth providing a stronger stimulus in the housing market than last year’s tax credits for home buyers.
Crowe forecasted 575,000 single-family home starts in 2011, a 21% climb over an estimated 475,000 units started in 2010, which in turn showed a 7% gain from the 442,000 homes started in 2009.
Multifamily, which is poised to profit from a disproportionate number of Gen Y members moving into the housing market, has seen the bottom of the cycle, he said, and will see its starts rise 16% this year to 133,000 units, with a further 53% increase in 2012 to 203,000 units.
Builders’ access to the credit they need to start new homes remains the fragile component of the NAHB forecast, Crowe said. So far, small builders have experienced extreme difficulty in obtaining financing, and rectifying the situation as soon as possible is the top priority of the association.
More encouraging is a rebound in the confidence of consumers, who mid-2010 “froze in place, faced with a lot of uncertainty,” he said. A recent pickup in durable purchases for such items as automobiles and furniture indicates that consumers are less afraid today of losing jobs and income.
The U.S. economy will receive a boost from the massive tax package enacted at the end of last year, he said, including more income going into the pockets of wage earners thanks to a one-year 2% reduction in Social Security taxes. This will contribute to the gross domestic product strengthening from the 2.5% range to 3.5% to 3.8% by year’s end.
New-home sales, Crowe projected, “will struggle” but begin following employment gains, reaching 405,000 for the year, up from an estimate of about 320,000 for 2010.
The housing recovery will start up slowly this year, he said, because it will be driven by the relatively low housing production Plains states, with Texas the most powerful of the bunch. Traditional bulwarks of housing activity such as California and Florida, on the other hand, will not be among the states whose housing markets recover the fastest.
In addition to stimulative fiscal and monetary policy, Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said that housing affordability and demographic trends will help support growing housing demand.
Citing research from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Nothaft said that households should be growing at an average annual rate of 1.2 million to 1.5 million over the next five to 10 years, suggesting the need for a sharp increase in housing production; half of the 500,000 to 600,000 starts of the past two years were needed just to replace the number of homes being removed from the housing stock.
While there will continue to be supply overhangs in some important large markets, by and large the housing price slump should bottom out by the middle of this year, he said, and price increases are already occurring in some local areas. That should attract prospective buyers who have been procrastinating until they see prices hit bottom.
“Potential buyers who have resources to buy but want to buy at the bottom are likely to start coming into the market in the springtime,” he said, which for fence sitters will be “the time to come into the market.”
Fixed-rate mortgages will move up from their current 4.75% to the 5.75% range by the end of this year, he forecasted. This will push total single-family mortgage originations down about 30% below the 2010 level as refinancings fall sharply in the face of rising mortgage rates.
While a 20% increase in housing production in 2011 is good news for housing, to put things in perspective, Nothaft said that this gain is from an extremely low level, with single-family production declining about 80% from peak to trough.
“This year’s spring selling season will be better than last year’s,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, with job growth providing a stronger stimulus in the housing market than last year’s tax credits for home buyers.
Crowe forecasted 575,000 single-family home starts in 2011, a 21% climb over an estimated 475,000 units started in 2010, which in turn showed a 7% gain from the 442,000 homes started in 2009.
Multifamily, which is poised to profit from a disproportionate number of Gen Y members moving into the housing market, has seen the bottom of the cycle, he said, and will see its starts rise 16% this year to 133,000 units, with a further 53% increase in 2012 to 203,000 units.
Builders’ access to the credit they need to start new homes remains the fragile component of the NAHB forecast, Crowe said. So far, small builders have experienced extreme difficulty in obtaining financing, and rectifying the situation as soon as possible is the top priority of the association.
More encouraging is a rebound in the confidence of consumers, who mid-2010 “froze in place, faced with a lot of uncertainty,” he said. A recent pickup in durable purchases for such items as automobiles and furniture indicates that consumers are less afraid today of losing jobs and income.
The U.S. economy will receive a boost from the massive tax package enacted at the end of last year, he said, including more income going into the pockets of wage earners thanks to a one-year 2% reduction in Social Security taxes. This will contribute to the gross domestic product strengthening from the 2.5% range to 3.5% to 3.8% by year’s end.
New-home sales, Crowe projected, “will struggle” but begin following employment gains, reaching 405,000 for the year, up from an estimate of about 320,000 for 2010.
The housing recovery will start up slowly this year, he said, because it will be driven by the relatively low housing production Plains states, with Texas the most powerful of the bunch. Traditional bulwarks of housing activity such as California and Florida, on the other hand, will not be among the states whose housing markets recover the fastest.
In addition to stimulative fiscal and monetary policy, Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said that housing affordability and demographic trends will help support growing housing demand.
Citing research from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Nothaft said that households should be growing at an average annual rate of 1.2 million to 1.5 million over the next five to 10 years, suggesting the need for a sharp increase in housing production; half of the 500,000 to 600,000 starts of the past two years were needed just to replace the number of homes being removed from the housing stock.
While there will continue to be supply overhangs in some important large markets, by and large the housing price slump should bottom out by the middle of this year, he said, and price increases are already occurring in some local areas. That should attract prospective buyers who have been procrastinating until they see prices hit bottom.
“Potential buyers who have resources to buy but want to buy at the bottom are likely to start coming into the market in the springtime,” he said, which for fence sitters will be “the time to come into the market.”
Fixed-rate mortgages will move up from their current 4.75% to the 5.75% range by the end of this year, he forecasted. This will push total single-family mortgage originations down about 30% below the 2010 level as refinancings fall sharply in the face of rising mortgage rates.
While a 20% increase in housing production in 2011 is good news for housing, to put things in perspective, Nothaft said that this gain is from an extremely low level, with single-family production declining about 80% from peak to trough.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
What Is Happening With Rates?
Interest rates are starting to rise and it may be a surprise to some. The overall economy is not recovering as fast as I think anyone would like, but I am hopeful we will start to see some improvement over the next few months. Below is an expert's take on what is happening with rates at the present time and a forecast for 2011.
2011 Interest Rate Forecast
Jan 12, 2011 (www.bankrate.com)
First the bad news: That 4.2 percent 30-year fixed mortgage rate some borrowers were lucky enough to snag in November? It's history.
Now the good news: Despite a weeks-long run-up from that trough, mortgage rates are still historically low and aren't expected to rise more than another half percent -- or less -- in 2011, according to economists and analysts.
"The bottom in rates is behind us," says Freddie Mac's Chief Economist, Frank Nothaft. "That's not to say today's rates are high. They're not. Aside from what we experienced the last couple of months, these are the lowest rates we have seen since the 1950s." Still, Nothaft says, "I do think they will be higher at the end of 2011 than (the end of) 2010." Cameron Findlay, chief economist at LendingTree, believes 30-year fixed rates will rise to about 5.25 percent in 2011. "We don't expect any significant rise from that point," Findlay adds. The Mortgage Bankers Association, in its most recent rate forecast on Dec. 17, is a tad more bearish, predicting rates will climb to 5.5 percent by the end of 2011 and "above the 6 percent mark" in 2012.
What caused rates to bounce off their November lows? Answer: Inflation fears.
The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, or QE2, was designed to inject massive amounts of capital into the nation's banks. The goal: banks will be so brimming with cash they will start making more long-term loans, such as mortgages. However, inflation fears stoked investors to abandon bonds, which had the effect of pushing up 10-year Treasury yields in recent weeks. Mortgage rates track those yields. Further, the extension of the Bush tax cuts in December 2010 encouraged investors to choose stocks, yet another reason bonds started paying higher rates.
"Inflation is a real concern and investors are trading on that," Findlay says. "And it is all driven from the excess liquidity. We can't maintain that level of excess liquidity long-term without it creating inflation." Though the higher mortgage rates caught consumers off guard, but today's levels more closely mirror a more normal market, economists contend. Rates stuck in the low- or mid-4 percent range would mean the economy is declining and probably in a double-dip recession. "We have gotten some encouraging economic news over the last couple of weeks and it looks like we will see income growth," Nothaft says. "We will see more job growth and we will be in an environment where core inflation will remain in check at a relatively low level."
NATIONAL RATE SURVEY RESULTS
Jan 13, 2011 (Bankrate.com)
30-year Conventional:
4.94% -- with avg. points: 0.38 pts
15-year Conventional:
4.29% -- with avg. points: 0.38 pts
30-year FHA:
4.875% -- with avg. points: 0.40 pts
5-year Conventional ARM:
3.88% -- with avg. points: 0.38 pts
2011 Interest Rate Forecast
Jan 12, 2011 (www.bankrate.com)
First the bad news: That 4.2 percent 30-year fixed mortgage rate some borrowers were lucky enough to snag in November? It's history.
Now the good news: Despite a weeks-long run-up from that trough, mortgage rates are still historically low and aren't expected to rise more than another half percent -- or less -- in 2011, according to economists and analysts.
"The bottom in rates is behind us," says Freddie Mac's Chief Economist, Frank Nothaft. "That's not to say today's rates are high. They're not. Aside from what we experienced the last couple of months, these are the lowest rates we have seen since the 1950s." Still, Nothaft says, "I do think they will be higher at the end of 2011 than (the end of) 2010." Cameron Findlay, chief economist at LendingTree, believes 30-year fixed rates will rise to about 5.25 percent in 2011. "We don't expect any significant rise from that point," Findlay adds. The Mortgage Bankers Association, in its most recent rate forecast on Dec. 17, is a tad more bearish, predicting rates will climb to 5.5 percent by the end of 2011 and "above the 6 percent mark" in 2012.
What caused rates to bounce off their November lows? Answer: Inflation fears.
The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, or QE2, was designed to inject massive amounts of capital into the nation's banks. The goal: banks will be so brimming with cash they will start making more long-term loans, such as mortgages. However, inflation fears stoked investors to abandon bonds, which had the effect of pushing up 10-year Treasury yields in recent weeks. Mortgage rates track those yields. Further, the extension of the Bush tax cuts in December 2010 encouraged investors to choose stocks, yet another reason bonds started paying higher rates.
"Inflation is a real concern and investors are trading on that," Findlay says. "And it is all driven from the excess liquidity. We can't maintain that level of excess liquidity long-term without it creating inflation." Though the higher mortgage rates caught consumers off guard, but today's levels more closely mirror a more normal market, economists contend. Rates stuck in the low- or mid-4 percent range would mean the economy is declining and probably in a double-dip recession. "We have gotten some encouraging economic news over the last couple of weeks and it looks like we will see income growth," Nothaft says. "We will see more job growth and we will be in an environment where core inflation will remain in check at a relatively low level."
NATIONAL RATE SURVEY RESULTS
Jan 13, 2011 (Bankrate.com)
30-year Conventional:
4.94% -- with avg. points: 0.38 pts
15-year Conventional:
4.29% -- with avg. points: 0.38 pts
30-year FHA:
4.875% -- with avg. points: 0.40 pts
5-year Conventional ARM:
3.88% -- with avg. points: 0.38 pts
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